Major Banks Stay Bullish on Gold, but “Higher-for-Longer” Risks Linger
A growing number of global investment banks believe gold’s uptrend still has room to run—though they expect a bumpier ride ahead. The core narrative is largely consistent across firms: gold remains supported by a mix of central-bank buying, hedging demand amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty, and broader portfolio diversification. At the same time, banks caution that the rally is unlikely to be smooth, as “higher-for-longer” interest-rate risks could resurface if inflation—especially energy-driven inflation—stays sticky.
From Goldman Sachs, Reuters reported the bank raised its end-2026 gold forecast to $5,400/oz (from $4,900). Goldman’s rationale centers on structural demand: increasing diversification into gold by both private-sector investors and emerging-market central banks, as macro uncertainty persists. In short, Goldman sees the underlying bid for gold staying stronger for longer than previously expected.
JPMorgan has taken an even more aggressive bullish stance. Reuters said JPMorgan lifted its long-term forecast to $4,500/oz and maintained a $6,300/oz target for end-2026. The bank points to structural drivers such as global diversification flows, sustained central-bank and investor demand, and a macro environment that can remain supportive when geopolitical risk is elevated and markets recalibrate rate expectations.
On the HSBC side, Reuters reported the bank sees gold potentially reaching $5,000/oz in the first half of 2026, supported by geopolitical risk and rising concerns over debt burdens. HSBC added a note of caution, however: a sharp rally could be followed by a deeper pullback if geopolitical tensions ease or if the Fed stops moving toward easier policy.
Citi strikes a more balanced tone—constructive over the medium term, but warning that some risk-driven supports could fade in the second half of 2026. Reuters noted Citi expects gold allocations to remain underpinned by a combination of geopolitical and economic risks, but argues that as uncertainty gradually recedes, the path of prices could become more uneven even if the broader trend remains positive.
In the same Reuters update that covered JPMorgan’s outlook, Bank of America was cited as seeing upside potential toward $6,000 within 12 months under a bullish scenario. That adds to the list of major-bank projections that still skew higher, reinforcing a broad “street consensus” that remains tilted toward gold—though timing and catalysts differ across firms.
Source : Newsmaker.id
