Signaling Energy War, Iran Restricts Hormuz Amid Negotiations
Parts of the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world's most crucial oil shipping routes—will reportedly be closed for "a few hours" on Tuesday as part of Iranian military exercises. The news sparked an immediate market reaction: oil prices rebounded, with Brent trading up slightly by 0.1% to $68.74 per barrel at around 11:22 a.m. London time. Iranian state television confirmed the strait's key transit route was under the control of the IRGC Navy, saying Iran has "no red lines" regarding maintaining regional security.
Tensions escalated after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated a warning that the US would bear the consequences if it attacks Iran—amid repeated threats from President Donald Trump if talks fail to reach a deal. Khamenei criticized the deployment of US warships as a dangerous weapon, but stressed that there are "more dangerous weapons" that could sink them, a statement that heightened the atmosphere of confrontation at a time when energy markets are sensitive to geopolitical risks.
Simultaneously, Iran and the US began a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva, Switzerland, mediated by Oman, reportedly beginning around 10:30 a.m. local time. Tehran expressed willingness to discuss uranium enrichment activities but tied any concessions to potential sanctions relief. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with the head of the IAEA the day before to discuss "proposals" to be brought to the negotiating table, and coordinated with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi to convey Iran's position to the US.
On the ground, both sides are also increasing their military presence: the US is reportedly deploying a second aircraft carrier to the region, while the IRGC is continuing exercises around Hormuz and plans to add equipment to bolster its military capabilities. The market is now reading two scenarios simultaneously: a potential disruption to supplies from the Persian Gulf or the possibility of sanctions relief that could reopen Iranian oil to buyers. With Brent having risen nearly 13% so far this year amid heightened tensions, diplomacy in Geneva is running alongside political pressure—including Israel's push to bring the ballistic missile issue into the discussion, and statements by some US politicians that a decision on "diplomacy or military action" could come within weeks. (alg)
Source: Newsmaker.id
