Goldman Raises Year-End Oil Forecast
Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the fourth quarter of this year, after observing that oil inventories in developed countries did not increase as expected. This tighter supply situation is considered to provide a cushion for prices, although the medium-term direction still influences the global supply cycle.
In a research note dated February 22, Goldman analysts led by Daan Struyven raised their Brent forecast for the fourth quarter by US$6 per barrel to US$60. The WTI forecast also increased by US$6 to US$56 for the same period.
Goldman highlighted the "minimal inventory buildup" in pricing centers in OECD countries. This means that supply that should have accumulated in key hubs has not, resulting in a tighter market and additional price support.
However, Goldman believes 2026 has the potential to be the "last year of the supply wave." Therefore, their projections for 2026 are still likely below forward prices, but Goldman estimates their 2028 projections could be above forward prices, indicating a shift in the supply-demand balance in the longer term.
On Monday, Brent was trading around US$71 per barrel. Goldman also believes oil prices could gradually decline as the geopolitical risk premium of around US$6 eases, assuming global tensions—especially regarding Iran—begin to ease. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
