Regional War Threats Emerge, Nuclear Negotiations at Stake
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of the potential for a "regional war" if Iran is attacked, amid rising tensions over possible US military action. In a public address, he emphasized that Iran is not seeking conflict, but will respond "strongly" to any party attempting to attack or harm Iran.
These tensions escalated further after Donald Trump again increased pressure and pushed Iran to renegotiate the nuclear agreement. Trump also expressed optimism that "a deal can be made," but at the same time suppressed the deployment of US military force in the region—sending a message to the market: the door to diplomacy is open, but pressure remains.
From a security perspective, Iran has stated that if the US attacks, Israel and US military bases in the region could also be targeted. This history of retaliatory threats is not just rhetoric for the market, as previous Iran-US tensions have also triggered retaliatory attacks on facilities linked to US interests in the region.
Security coordination also appears to be strengthening: senior Israeli Defense Forces officials, led by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, are reportedly in Washington to meet with US defense officials, including Dan Caine, amid discussions on anticipatory measures should tensions escalate. Diplomatically, several countries, such as Qatar, are also said to be in communication to prevent escalation.
Impact on gold and oil (when gold is falling): In theory, news of a war threat usually boosts safe-haven assets (gold) and adds a "risk premium" to oil. However, gold is currently in a downturn as the market is still "cleaning up" after an overly rapid rally (profit-taking + liquidation), and the dollar previously strengthened after rumors of a shift in expectations about Federal Reserve leadership—so the safe-haven effect of geopolitics may be offset by technical factors/unwinding positions. Meanwhile, for oil, Iran-US tensions tend to rebound more quickly into a risk premium because the Middle East is crucial for supply—so headlines of escalation usually "lift" oil more than gold, which is under pressure from a correction. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
