Global Oil Rises! What's Behind OPEC+'s Secret Decision?
Global crude oil prices rebounded in Wednesday evening trading, after weakening sharply in recent days. This increase was driven by OPEC+'s decision to restrain production increases, as well as growing market concerns about the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Brent crude prices rose around 1.2% to US$62.50 per barrel, while WTI (West Texas Intermediate) rose 1.2% to US$58.25 per barrel. Although still near five-month lows, today's movements signal the potential beginning of a recovery in global oil prices.
Today's oil price increase was primarily driven by the decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) to agree to increase production at a slower pace than market expectations. This move signals that major producer groups are ready to adjust supply to maintain price stability.
Furthermore, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—including potential export disruptions from Iran and risks to shipping lanes in the Red Sea—are adding to concerns about global supply. Investors are again buying energy assets to anticipate potential short-term disruptions.
"The market is starting to respond to concerns about supply security in oil-producing regions, although medium-term fundamentals still point to a potential surplus," said Saxo Bank energy analyst Ole Hansen, as quoted by Reuters.
On the other hand, the energy demand outlook is also supporting prices. As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, fuel consumption is expected to increase, particularly in Europe and the United States.
Furthermore, the easing of trade policies between the US and China also raises hopes for increased global industrial and transportation activity.
"The oil market is now in a new equilibrium phase — although short-term supply is quite tight, expectations of a demand recovery are starting to emerge," stated the Standard Chartered Energy Outlook report.
Technically, oil prices are showing signs of a rebound after testing strong support areas.
For Brent, the support area is at US$60–61 per barrel, while the nearest resistance is at US$63–64.
For WTI, support is at US$55–56 per barrel, with resistance at US$58.50–59.20.
A rise above this level opens up the potential for Brent to strengthen towards US$65 per barrel in the short term, especially if US crude stockpile data this week shows a decline in inventories.
Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have also begun to emerge from oversold territory, signaling a potential trend reversal after intense selling pressure over the past two weeks.
Although today's rebound signals a short-term recovery, analysts warn that market sentiment remains vulnerable to geopolitical developments and the future direction of OPEC+ policy.
If tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate or global demand data improves, oil prices could potentially break through US$65 per barrel. However, if supply becomes abundant again and the US dollar strengthens, selling pressure could return.
Source: Newsmaker.id
