Markets Worry About the Impact of US Tariffs and Global Oversupply
World crude oil prices, particularly Brent, weakened again on Monday (October 13, 2025) as market concerns grew over the impact of new US tariffs and the potential for a global oversupply. The Trump administration's aggressive move to raise import tariffs from China has added pressure to already fragile energy market sentiment due to global economic uncertainty.
Fundamentally, market participants assess the threat of tariffs as potentially slowing global energy demand. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that US oil production remains high at around 13.5 million barrels per day, increasing the potential for oversupply in the final quarter of this year. The EIA also estimates that Brent prices could average around USD 62 per barrel until the end of 2025 if demand conditions do not improve.
Meanwhile, OPEC+'s recent decision to moderately increase production by around 137,000 barrels per day provides a counterbalance to price pressures. However, investors remain wary of more aggressive supply increases, which could deepen the price decline. On the other hand, demand from India remains a price support factor, as the country is one of the world's largest oil consumers heading into the end of the year.
Technically, Brent's price movement is showing a short-term bearish trend. According to Investing.com data, daily technical indicators are signaling a Strong Sell, with the nearest resistance at USD 64 per barrel and key support around USD 62.5. If the price breaks below this support level, further declines towards the USD 60 per barrel area are likely. However, if a rebound occurs, supported by positive sentiment from trade negotiations or a seasonal increase in demand, prices could potentially retest the USD 66–67 per barrel level.
With the geopolitical situation remaining unstable, the threat of US tariffs on China, and tensions in the Middle East, global oil prices are expected to continue fluctuating sharply in the near term. Investors are now awaiting new signals from the FOMC meeting and developments in global trade negotiations, which have the potential to be the main catalysts for oil price movements this week. (mrv)
Source: Newsmaker.id
