Supply Surplus Pressures, Global Markets Wary of New Risks
Crude oil traded cautiously on Monday (September 15th) after the latest report indicated a potential global supply surplus amidst still-sluggish demand. The OPEC+ decision to begin easing production cuts, coupled with increasing supply from non-OPEC producers, has caused the market to weigh the risk of oversupply in the coming quarter.
According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil production is expected to increase by around 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, as OPEC+ partially lifts output restrictions. This situation is exacerbated by increased production from the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, raising concerns about a buildup of inventories in the global market.
On the other hand, demand remains weak. Energy consumption in the United States and China—the world's two largest markets—is trending slow, while inventory data shows US gasoline and distillate stocks are starting to increase. This indicates that the peak demand season has passed.
However, geopolitical tensions remain a price driver. Drone attacks on refineries and energy terminals in Russia have raised concerns about supply disruptions, although the direct impact on global production has not been significant.
The market is also awaiting the direction of US monetary policy. If the Fed maintains high interest rates, the prospects for economic growth and energy consumption could be further depressed. Conversely, signals of interest rate easing or stimulus from China could potentially boost the oil demand outlook.
Under these conditions, oil prices are expected to move under short-term pressure due to the supply surplus, but remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and global economic policy.
Source: Newsmaker.id
