OPEC+ Supply Rises, Global Demand Weakens, Oil Under Pressure
World oil prices faced renewed pressure in today's trading due to increased supply from OPEC+ and a slowing global demand outlook. Market participants believe the oil outlook is weakening despite emerging geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
At the APPEC energy conference in Singapore, several oil executives expressed pessimistic views on oil prices. They believed the increase in OPEC+ production starting in October could potentially increase supply pressure amidst a still-unrecovered energy consumption.
The HSBC report also stated that OPEC+ will gradually lift production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day over the next 12 months. The Brent oil price projection was also revised down from US$70 to US$65 per barrel.
Interestingly, despite the Israeli attack on Qatar, oil prices did not record a significant spike. This confirms that the market is currently more focused on the risk of oversupply than geopolitical sentiment.
Technical: Strong Resistance at US$68.00
For Brent oil, the price is currently moving in the range of US$67.44–67.80 per barrel, approaching the psychological resistance area of US$68. If this level is broken through with strong volume, the potential for strengthening towards US$70.00 is wide open. However, failure to break through this resistance risks triggering a correction back to the nearest support at US$65.50. Technical indicators such as the RSI, which is approaching 60, still offer room for upside, although the medium-term trend remains bearish as long as prices are not consistently above US$65.
Oil market fundamentals are currently leaning more bearish, with a focus on increasing supply and weak global demand. Analysts believe that as long as prices are unable to break through key resistance, oil movements will likely be limited and could potentially correct if supply pressure continues to increase.
Source: Newsmaker.id
