Pressure from Two Directions Could Weaken Oil Prices
The possibility of a global oil oversupply is rising again, potentially depressing global oil prices. OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day for August and September, ending previous cuts. This creates the potential for a global oversupply.
This is a sign of pressure, but pessimism about further production increases. Despite the increase in production, analysts note doubts about whether members like Saudi Arabia or Russia will actually be able to meet their targets, keeping prices in the $68–$70 range.
Global trade sentiment is negative, with concerns over US tariffs imposed on various countries potentially slowing global economic growth and lowering medium-term energy demand.
Geopolitics remains a moderate bullish catalyst, while the threat of Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz last June triggered a price spike, although the market now considers this possibility to have been neutralized.
Goldman Sachs set its Brent forecast for Q4 2025 at $64/bbl and $56/bbl in 2026. A Reuters poll forecast Brent to average around $67.84 in 2025, with a risk of a decline to $63 in Q2 2026.
Prices are moving between the $65 support and $70 resistance levels, a common consolidation in the oil market after previous price volatility. Key support is at $65, while intraday resistance is around $69 and $70, the upper limit of the range.
Source : Newsmaker.id
