Oil Caught Between Political Pressure and Production Surges
President Trump imposed new tariffs effective August 1st on numerous countries, including potential sanctions on Russian oil buyers like India and China. This creates uncertainty and potential disruptions to global supply—supporting oil prices.
The threat of secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries that continue to buy Russian oil (China, India) increases the risk of further global supply constraints, supporting oil prices.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ continues to increase production—projected to increase by an additional 548,000 barrels per day in August–September. Geopolitical support offsets this increase in supply, keeping prices stable.
US crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by around 7.7 million barrels in the past week, but gasoline inventories fell sharply—a sign that gasoline demand remains strong despite ample oil supply. This creates mixed fundamental signals for the market.
The market remains in a holding pattern: fundamental signals support the price, but technical momentum is not yet strong enough for a breakout.
If prices break above $71 and move above resistance at $72–74, there is potential for a further rebound.
The support area is around $69, and if broken, there's potential for a decline towards $67–65.
Technically, the market remains uncertain: mixed signals.
Fundamentals: Geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions are supporting prices, but rising production and declining demand remain a concern.
Source: Newsmaker.id
