Oil Stuck at a Crossroads: Waiting for a Breakout or a Correction?
Oil is still trading in a tight range around $67 per barrel. The decline that occurred a few days earlier due to Donald Trump's statement that there had been a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was slightly restrained regarding the US report on their crude oil inventories.
The EIA report showed a decline in inventories of 5.8 million barrels, far exceeding the estimate of 0.8 million barrels. Gasoline stocks also fell, indicating strong US domestic demand, supporting prices and preventing further declines. Although it had triggered a price spike at the beginning of the week, the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East began to ease due to the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement. This news dampened the sharp upward pressure, but the fundamentals of supply/demand were still solid.
Pressure from President Trump to Powell on monetary policy caused the dollar to weaken to a three-year low—weakening bond yields and supporting commodity prices, including oil.
OPEC+ is still maintaining a stable output policy, despite the discourse on increasing production as suggested by Russian officials. This means that global supply has not experienced a spike, keeping prices moving at this level.
Still in an ascending consolidation pattern (ascending range) since June 20, 2025. The price forms higher lows, indicating that buyers are slowly entering, but there has been no strong breakout. Bullish breakout if it breaks through and closes above 68.70 → next target: 69.80 to 71.00, while Rejection & falls below 66.80 → can retest strong support at 65.40.
Source : (mrv@Newsmaker)
