Gold Enters "Wait & Strike" Mode
Gold's movement this week has tended to be sideways, not because the market has lost direction, but because market participants are "locking in positions" ahead of a series of major US data releases. After briefly strengthening to the $5,056 area at the start of the week, gold continued consolidation, with limited gains to around $5,074 on Wednesday. However, entering Thursday, the market response became more cautious following the release of solid US employment data, causing gold to move narrower, though remaining above the psychological $5,000 level.
From a fundamental perspective, two main "engines" are pushing against each other. On the one hand, US consumption data weakened, with December retail sales coming in flat and missing expectations, signaling that purchasing power is starting to lose momentum. This narrative maintains the possibility that the Federal Reserve will ultimately have room to ease policy in the second half of the year, which theoretically supports gold (a non-yielding asset). On the other hand, strong NFP figures and falling unemployment rates have forced the market to reduce aggressive bets on interest rate cuts, preventing gold's rally from taking off and instead remaining stuck in a "range-bound" phase.
This is what makes this week feel like a "decision week without a decision": gold remains in demand, but buyers are choosing to be disciplined and wait for confirmation. Market focus is now locked on inflation data (CPI), which will be the next trigger to determine whether it will cool enough to pave the way for faster easing or maintain a high interest rate scenario for longer. In such a situation, intraday volatility can emerge, but it tends to subside as most market players are reluctant to take large positions before the inflation figures are released.
Beyond the data, gold is also still supported by more structural factors: shifting asset preferences and long-term buying. Reuters highlights that gold buyers remain committed to the long-term narrative—debt, asset diversification, and uncertainty—so a single strong data release doesn't automatically "break" buying interest. This explains why, despite shifting expectations for interest rate cuts, gold hasn't collapsed and remains comfortably hovering above $5,000.
Meanwhile, geopolitical "guardrails" remain in place: Middle East tensions refocused on Iran are keeping safe-haven demand alive. The market views headline risks from nuclear negotiations, regional security dynamics, and potential energy disruptions as factors that make holding short gold positions unsuitable for too long. In market parlance, geopolitics isn't always the trigger for major rallies, but it's often the reason gold struggles to fall deeply.
In conclusion, this week's gold price is more accurately read as a consolidation phase "waiting for the judge's gavel." The $5,000 area serves as a psychological anchor, while its next direction depends largely on how the CPI shifts interest rate expectations and how geopolitical headlines develop. If inflation subsides and global tensions remain high, gold has a chance of breaking out of its range. However, if inflation persists and the dollar/yields regain dominance, gold will likely remain in a limited sideways range for now, before deciding on a direction. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
