Oil Rises Steadily Today: Iran Pushes for a Risk Premium, But Venezuela Acts as a Brake
Oil prices moved steadily on Tuesday (January 13th), driven by concerns about supply disruptions from Iran. Brent rose around 0.4% to $64.15/barrel, while WTI strengthened 0.5% to $59.78/barrel—WTI even touched its highest level since early December.
Fundamentally, the market is pricing in a geopolitical premium as major protests in Iran fuel speculation of a harsher response from the US. Reuters reports that Barclays analysts estimate these tensions add a risk premium of around $3–$4 per barrel to oil prices. This factor is keeping oil supported despite mixed global sentiment.
However, oil's rally remains subdued by Venezuela's "backstop." The market is also calculating the potential for additional supply if Venezuelan exports resume—the US is even said to receive up to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned oil. This means today's narrative remains a tug-of-war: Iran driving up prices, while Venezuela holds back the rally.
From a technical perspective, the biggest focus is on WTI's $60 area. This level serves as a psychological barrier: if WTI can break through and maintain above $60, upside potential opens up to the $60.6–$61 area. However, if it fails to break through, WTI is vulnerable to profit-taking, leading to a fall back to $59.2–$59.0. (For context, WTI is currently below $60, despite improving momentum.)
For Brent, prices are testing the upper $64 area and approaching a short-term peak. Immediate resistance lies at $64.4–$64.5, with $65 as the next psychological target if Iran headlines escalate. Conversely, if the market refocuses on additional Venezuelan supply or tensions ease, Brent could potentially weaken to $63.8 and then $63.4–$63.0.
Looking ahead, market participants will also be monitoring US oil inventory data (weekly report), which will be a catalyst for the next intraday movement. The EIA also noted a change in the weekly data release system starting in early January 2026, so the market is typically more sensitive to the publication schedule and details.
Source: Newsmaker.id
