Gold Holds Strong Amid Safe Haven Sentiment, Market Awaits New Direction
Global gold prices moved relatively stable with an upward trend in today's trading, supported by a combination of safe haven sentiment, expectations of a Fed interest rate cut, and continued central bank purchases. Global uncertainty and monetary policy dynamics remain the main factors supporting the precious metal's movement, although short-term correction pressure remains looming after the previous strong rally.
From a fundamental perspective, rising global geopolitical risks have prompted investors to seek safe haven assets, with gold remaining a top choice. Meanwhile, financial markets continue to project at least two Fed interest rate cuts this year, keeping real yields low. This situation reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, thus maintaining its appeal. Furthermore, central bank purchases of gold—particularly from China—continue to strengthen medium- to long-term structural demand.
Meanwhile, the US dollar's movement tends to be limited. Mixed US economic data, with the services sector remaining solid but the labor market showing signs of moderation, makes it difficult for the dollar to strengthen aggressively. This situation provides room for gold to remain in the positive zone even without a major catalyst in the very short term.
Technical Analysis: Gold Remains Secured by Key Support
Technically, gold prices remain within a medium-term bullish structure, although short-term momentum is starting to slow. A strong support area is located in the 4,430–4,400 range, which has so far been able to withstand selling pressure. As long as the price remains above this zone, the opportunity for healthy consolidation remains open.
On the upside, the nearest resistance is located in the 4,480–4,500 area. A clear break above this zone would open room for further strengthening, while failure to break through this resistance could potentially trigger limited profit-taking.
Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are showing neutral-positive conditions, indicating that gold is not yet in an extremely overbought area, but also needs a new catalyst to drive further gains.
Projected Movement at the Start of Next Week
Entering the start of next week, gold is expected to move more actively, as market volume returns and investors focus on the direction of US monetary policy and the latest geopolitical developments.
Bullish scenario:
If gold is able to hold above the 4,430 support level and the US dollar remains weak, the price has the potential to retest the 4,480 area and even approach the next psychological level.
Correction scenario:
However, if the dollar strengthens or US bond yields rise, gold risks a limited correction to the 4,400–4,380 area before rediscovering buying interest.
Conclusion
Overall, the outlook for gold remains positive with a cautious bullish bias. Medium-term fundamental factors remain supportive, while technically, gold is in a healthy consolidation phase. Movements at the start of next week will be largely determined by the direction of the US dollar and global risk sentiment.
Source: Newsmaker.id
