Global Oil Prices Move Slightly, Supply and Demand Pressures the Market Focus
Global crude oil prices moved slightly in today's trading, trending lower, amid market dynamics driven by a combination of fundamental and technical factors. This movement reflects investor concerns about the global supply surplus, as well as persistently weak demand signals.
Fundamentally, the oil market is facing strong supply pressure. Recent geopolitical turmoil, including Venezuela's planned oil supply to the global market, is seen as a factor that could increase supply volumes and depress prices. Analysts believe this additional supply flow has the potential to strengthen oil's position under downward pressure, especially if it successfully enters the market on a large scale.
Furthermore, energy experts predict that the United States will attempt to suppress oil prices below a certain psychological level this year through a strategy of channeling millions of barrels of oil from Venezuela. This move is seen as an effort to lower domestic energy costs and address market pressures.
The very loose global supply situation is also supported by data from international institutions showing a significant oil surplus and continued high energy production from various major producing countries. This surplus is one reason why oil prices are experiencing structural pressure, despite various geopolitical uncertainties in various regions.
Global demand is also a key factor in price movements. Moderating economic growth, particularly in major consumer countries like China and the US, has made oil demand projections less optimistic. This economic uncertainty adds pressure on prices, as investors await confirmation of increasing demand before taking strong bullish positions.
Technical: Downward Pressure Remains Dominant, Traders Monitor Critical Support
From a technical perspective, current oil price movements indicate short- to medium-term bearish sentiment. Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices remain below several key resistance levels, indicating that selling pressure remains dominant in the market. Before a significant trend reversal occurs, traders are looking at several key levels as reference points.
The main technical resistance level is estimated to be around US$60–61 per barrel for WTI, and around the same psychological price level for Brent. The failure of prices to break through this area indicates that bullish momentum remains weak and downward pressure remains strong.
On the other hand, the technical support that the market is focusing on is around US$58–59 per barrel for Brent. If prices significantly break below this support, technical analysts predict that the subsequent decline could continue, extending the decline to lower levels. Conversely, if this support holds, a temporary technical rebound could occur before a clear long-term trend is established.
Momentum technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also show strong selling pressure compared to buying, reinforcing the view that the short-term downtrend still dominates current oil price movements in the global market.
Market Outlook: Anxious Awaiting Demand Data and Producer Decisions
Market participants are now awaiting the latest oil demand data from major economies and production policy decisions from OPEC+ at the upcoming meeting. The market is also watching political decisions and global energy policies that could change the direction of oil supply or demand in the near future.
Until a clear new direction is established, oil market sentiment is expected to remain cautious, with volatility potentially increasing if unexpected data regarding global demand or supply disruptions in key global energy production regions emerge.
Source: Newsmaker.id
