Are Market Changes Determined by Last Night's Data?
Last night (with the release of the delayed US jobs data), the market received a "cooling but not yet crashing" signal: October recorded -105,000 jobs, November +64,000, and unemployment rose to 4.6% (the highest since 2021).
This prevented market participants from hastily escalating speculation of an imminent interest rate cut.
As a result, the US dollar, which had been shaky, became firmer afterward: in the following session, the dollar strengthened against G10 currencies, and the market continued to believe the Fed didn't need to rush into a cut. The probability of a "hold rate" at the January meeting remains dominant, while the chance of a January cut remains slim.
In the bond market, the logic is similar: because the jobs data wasn't weak enough to force the Fed to ease quickly, Treasury yields tended to rise slightly/hold steady (bonds weakened slightly). This also prevented the dollar from falling easily even though the economy appeared to be slowing down.
However, gold and silver continued to strengthen. Gold pushed back above $4,330, approaching its October high, while silver hit a new record above $66/oz.
There were two reasons: (1) the market still sees the possibility of interest rate easing in the future (though not "now"), and (2) geopolitical risks have risen again, leading to a resurgence of safe-haven demand.
For oil, the trend was somewhat different: initially, it was pressured by stories of oversupply and slowing demand, but then rebounded after Trump increased pressure on Venezuela (the issue of "potential supply disruptions" immediately entered the price). So, oil rose not because of good US data, but because the market suddenly recalculated global supply risks.
In conclusion, last night's US data put the market in a more neutral position—weak enough to keep hopes of a cut next year alive, but not weak enough to trigger a quick cut, keeping the dollar and yields relatively resilient. Meanwhile, gold and silver "catch the ball" from the combination of safe-haven and interest rate expectations, and oil moved on geopolitical headlines. The next focus, which could change everything, is the US CPI (Thursday) and comments from Fed officials.
Source: Newsmaker.id
