Brent Weakens at $60—These Are the Triggers and Today's Critical Levels!
Oil prices weakened in the Asian session on Tuesday, continuing the decline from the previous day. Brent fell to around $59.53/barrel and WTI to $55.89/barrel, as the market began to "imagine" the possibility of a stronger Russia-Ukraine peace deal—which could mean sanctions could be eased and Russian oil supplies could become more stable.
From a fundamental perspective, this peaceful sentiment is important because the oil market is already sensitive to oversupply issues. If logistical bottlenecks and restrictions related to Russia are eased, supply will feel more relaxed in an already tense market. The Financial Times also highlighted concerns about a 2026 surplus that could widen if global supply increases.
Pressure is mounting from China. Recent data showed factory output growth slowing to a 15-month low and retail sales slowing to the slowest pace since December 2022, fueling concerns that global demand (especially from the world's largest oil buyer) will not be strong enough to absorb the increase in supply.
Although there were factors that "should" have been supportive (for example, the issue of a tanker seizure near Venezuela), their impact on prices was limited. The market assessed that floating storage and changes in buying flows (including Chinese buying activity) helped mitigate the impact of the news on prices.
From a technical perspective, the $60 area in Brent is a key psychological level: holding above it usually triggers a rebound, but if it breaks and fails to recover quickly, the risk of further declines opens up. In another update on the same day, Brent also briefly weakened below $60, indicating that this level is truly being "tested."
For WTI, several technical analysts see prices in the long support zone of $55–$60. This means that as long as WTI remains in this area, the chance of a rebound remains—but if it breaks below $55, the potential for a deeper decline could be due to the next major support level being further away.
Things to watch today: further headlines regarding the Ukraine negotiations (especially signals regarding sanctions/supply access) and major data releases (US/China) that could shift risk sentiment and the direction of the dollar. If peace news becomes more concrete and Chinese data remains weak, oil prices will likely be more susceptible to pressure. Conversely, if obstacles arise in negotiations or demand data improves, a technical rebound could emerge from the support area.
Source: Newsmaker.id
