Oil is Moving Sideways Near $59–$62, Ready to Rebound or Break Below?
Oil prices are stable today, Tuesday (December 9th), after falling around 2% in the previous session. Brent is currently trading around $62.3 per barrel, with a narrow daily range of $62.31–$62.54, while WTI is hovering around $58.9–$59.4 per barrel.
The market remains in a "wait-and-see" mode ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, amid news of Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations and changes in global supply flows, which have created mixed sentiment between hopes for an interest rate cut and concerns about oversupply.
Fundamentally, traders' primary focus is currently on two things: the Fed and the supply surplus. Expectations of a Fed rate cut tend to support prices because they can boost growth prospects and energy demand, while simultaneously putting pressure on the US dollar. On the other hand, several institutions, including ING analysts, estimate that the supply surplus could exceed 2 million barrels per day by 2026 as OPEC+ eases production cuts and non-OPEC output continues to rise.
With US production remaining near record levels and stocks not declining aggressively, the market believes that room for price increases is likely limited as long as the oversupply issue persists.
Technically, WTI is currently trading around $59 after breaking through ascending channel support below $59, which some analysts interpret as a short-term weakening signal. The next support is seen in the $58–$58.50 zone, while the nearest resistance is around $60–$61.
Brent is hovering around $62.30 and remains within a tight two-week range of $62–$64, with support near $62 and resistance around $63–$63.80.
The pattern is more likely to be sideways consolidation with a slightly bearish bias: a reasonable intraday scenario is for prices to trade within a range, with opportunities to sell at the upper resistance area and buy on dips only if a strong positive catalyst emerges (e.g., a more dovish-than-expected Fed or a sharp drop in US stockpiles data).
Source: Newsmaker.id
