From the Fed to Geopolitics: All Eyes on Gold: Breakout or Correction?
Currently, spot gold (XAUUSD) remains in the range of US$4,220–4,250 per troy ounce, near its highest level in recent weeks. Intraday, today's range is roughly US$4,206–4,256, with the last price around US$4,235–4,240, indicating the market is still holding gold in the "premium" zone after last month's sharp rise.
Today's movement is predicted to weaken slightly in the short term due to profit-taking, but the underlying sentiment remains positive. Investors are pricing in the strong possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates again this month, keeping the 10-year US Treasury yield stuck around 4.0–4.05%, and the dollar near its weakest point since mid-November. This combination of falling yields and a weakening dollar makes gold attractive as a non-yielding asset and safe haven.
In addition to the Fed and dollar factors, the market is also still weighing geopolitical uncertainty (Russia-Ukraine, the Middle East) and the issue of a global economic slowdown, which typically support demand for gold as a hedge. On the other hand, several studies highlight the continued strength of gold purchases by central banks (including the People's Bank of China) and expectations of looser fiscal/monetary policies in China as supporting the medium-term bullish trend.
Technically, the broad trend in gold remains clearly bullish – the price is well above strong support areas, and the majority of daily moving averages still signal "Buy/Strong Buy" for the medium timeframe. However, several momentum indicators (such as the RSI and other oscillators) are beginning to show near-overbought conditions, indicating there is still room for upside but the risk of a short-term correction if there is a news trigger or a momentary dollar strengthening.
In terms of price levels, several technical analysts (including local Indonesian ones) mapped:
Key short-term support is around 4,168–4,182 and below that, 4,142–4,154, followed by deeper support at 4,089–4,100 and 4,040–4,050.
Key intraday resistance is in the 4,250–4,264 zone, with the next targets at 4,272–4,317, and further up at 4,346–4,381 if the rally continues.
Some technical analysts view the underlying scenario as still bullish as long as the price remains above 4,160.
Source: Newsmaker.id
