Global Oil Prices Falter, Demand Weakens & Production Surges
World oil prices traded slightly higher on Wednesday, with market participants still assessing the combination of negative sentiment stemming from rising global supply and weakening energy demand due to the international economic slowdown. Brent and WTI crude are currently trading in the US$62–US$63 per barrel range, reflecting persistent pressure after several consecutive days of declines. Market concerns intensified after the latest report showed production from non-OPEC+ countries continued to grow, while OPEC+ production cuts were deemed insufficient to balance the market.
On the demand side, slowing manufacturing activity in the US, Europe, and China has weakened the outlook for global oil consumption. Expectations that the global economy is moving into a phase of low growth have also dampened the medium-term outlook for oil. Furthermore, news of intensified peace talks between Russia and Ukraine increases the probability of easing energy sanctions, which could reopen Russian oil supplies to the global market. This has further increased price pressure and reduced the geopolitical risk premium that has been supporting the energy market.
Technically, Brent oil is currently moving in a downtrend but approaching a strong support area in the US$60-61 range. If this support zone holds, there is potential for a rebound towards US$64-66 and the next resistance level at US$68 per barrel. This resistance level is a medium-term directional indicator: if broken, oil could potentially turn bullish towards US$72-74. However, if selling pressure persists and the support level breaks, oil could potentially fall to US$58-59, opening the way for a deeper correction.
With market liquidity likely low ahead of the year-end holidays, analysts warn of the possibility of sharp volatility if new fundamental catalysts arise, such as OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical conflicts, or surprising macroeconomic data. Currently, the oil outlook is categorized as stable-bearish, with the market awaiting new directional triggers from global manufacturing data and updates to international energy production policies.
The oil market is in a highly sensitive situation, where downside risks remain dominant but the opportunity for a technical rebound remains open. Market participants assess that the subsequent trend will depend heavily on geopolitical developments and macroeconomic data releases coming weeks. Meanwhile, investors and energy industry players are advised to exercise caution, as oil prices can fluctuate rapidly due to global sentiment dynamics.
Source : Newsmaker.id
