Market Eyes Ukraine Peace and OPEC+, Which Will Affect Oil
World oil prices moved sluggishly and remained near a one-month low in the latest session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil traded around US$58 per barrel, while Brent was just above US$62 per barrel. This movement reflects a market still clouded by concerns about a global oversupply in 2025–2026, when supply growth is expected to outpace demand.
Fundamentally, sentiment is being weighed down by two main factors: the prospect of a supply surplus and developments in Russia–Ukraine diplomatic tensions. The US-led peace efforts are seen as opening the door to the return of more Russian oil to the already oversupplied global market. At the same time, the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a much larger-than-expected increase in crude oil stocks due to a surge in imports, signaling that demand remains weak.
Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have actually provided little support for oil prices, as lower interest rates have the potential to boost economic growth and energy consumption. However, so far, the positive impact of the rate cut narrative has been outweighed by supply-side pressure and the risk of additional Russian supply if a peace agreement is reached.
Technically, WTI remains in a medium-term downtrend, with prices consolidating narrowly around US$57–59 per barrel. Analysts view the area around US$59–60 as the closest resistance area, while key support lies around US$57 and then US$55 per barrel. As long as prices remain below these resistance areas, oil's movement pattern is likely to be viewed as a sell-on-rally rather than the start of a new uptrend.
For Brent, its technical pattern also indicates a downtrend that has not yet been fully broken. Prices are moving in the US$62–64 per barrel range, with immediate support around US$62 and further support around US$60. On the upside, the US$64–65 area represents a fairly strong resistance zone, as it served as a distribution area before the recent decline. As long as Brent is unable to break through and hold above this zone with convincing volume, the upward movement is more likely to be viewed as a technical rebound within a downtrend, rather than a solid trend reversal.
Looking ahead, market players will focus on two key triggers: the outcome of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the official decision of OPEC+ at its weekend meeting. If there are no signs of new production cuts from OPEC+ and Ukraine diplomacy yields the prospect of additional Russian supply, downward pressure on oil prices could continue, with a short-term rebound considered fragile.
Source : Newsmaker.id
