Market Speculation on the Fed's Rate Cut: How Far Could Gold Rise?
Today's gold price is stable, tending to strengthen in the range of US$4,140–US$4,150 per troy ounce, after a nearly 2% surge in the previous session. The main sentiment stems from expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting, supported by dovish comments from several Fed officials who believe the weakening US labor market is beginning to be felt. In an environment of potential interest rate cuts and persistent global economic uncertainty, gold remains attractive as a non-interest-bearing hedge.
The prolonged US government shutdown has delayed the release of several key data points, particularly on the labor market. As a result, market participants are increasingly sensitive to every statement from central bank officials for clues to the direction of future policy. This week, the focus is on the release of retail sales data, producer inflation, and jobless claims, which will serve as additional benchmarks ahead of next month's interest rate decision. These data results have the potential to strengthen or dampen the chances of an interest rate cut, which the market has already aggressively priced in.
Technically, gold remains in a medium-term uptrend, with prices holding comfortably above the key US$4,000–US$4,050 area. The recent rise confirms a bullish bias as long as prices can hold above this support zone. In the short term, key support is seen around US$4,100 and then US$4,050, while upside is limited by resistance in the US$4,160–US$4,170 range before the historical peak above US$4,380.
As long as prices move between these support and resistance levels, gold has the potential to continue its consolidation pattern with a positive bias. A stronger move is expected only if there is a surprise from US economic data or a firmer signal from the Fed: a more dovish tone could push gold through resistance, while more hawkish comments or overly strong data risk triggering a short-term correction.
Source: Newsmaker.id
