Gold Hovering in Uncertainty, Where Is It Heading?
Global gold prices are once again under investor scrutiny, with the precious metal experiencing significant fluctuations during today's trading session. A combination of escalating geopolitical factors, coupled with macroeconomic support for the US dollar and bond yields, has left gold at a crossroads between potential gains and corrections.
Gold's primary support comes from rising demand as a safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical conflicts—including tensions between the US and Venezuela and China and Japan—which have increased investor interest in seeking protection from market volatility. However, gold is also facing pressure from a strengthening US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates despite a better-than-expected employment report, which traditionally reduces the appeal of non-yielding precious metals.
Technical Analysis: Focus on Support & Resistance Zones
Technically, the daily and 4-hour charts show that gold (XAU/USD) is currently consolidating within a critical range. The key support level in the range of US$4,000 to US$4,050 per ounce is a major focus; if this level fails to hold, the risk of a downward correction becomes real. Conversely, significant resistance lies around US$4,100 to US$4,150 per ounce, which, if successfully broken through with strong volume, could open up upside potential to higher levels.
Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have touched the overbought zone in the short term, and trading volume has not yet fully supported the price surge—suggesting that the current uptrend may be losing momentum. An upward breakout or a downward breakdown of this pattern could trigger the next movement.
Next Week's Forecast: Two Open Scenarios
For the coming week, there are two main scenarios being monitored:
Bullish Scenario: If gold closes the session above US$4,130–4,150 with volume confirmation and weakening dollar pressure, then upside potential opens up to US$4,200–4,250 per ounce. This scenario will be further fueled by disappointing US economic data or a major geopolitical escalation.
Bearish/Correction Scenario: If gold fails to maintain critical support at US$4,000–4,050 and the dollar strengthens or the Fed signals a hawkish stance, gold is at risk of heading towards its next support level around US$3,950–3,900.
Investors and traders are advised to pay attention to a series of key economic data and geopolitical news that could trigger a surge in safe-haven flows. Strategies to consider include "buying on dips" near support and "selling on strength" near resistance, with clear stop-losses to protect positions.
While gold is in a critical phase leading to a clearer directional decision, fundamentals and technicals suggest that the metal could receive a boost if global conditions worsen. However, if the US economy remains strong and the dollar is perceived as safe, there is still a risk of a correction. The market next week will likely rely heavily on macroeconomic news and data—emerging as a key moment for investors to choose sides.
Source: Newsmaker.id
