Energy Crisis Threat! OPEC+ Actions and Middle East Conflict Cause Brent to Reversal
Brent crude oil futures prices are currently hovering around US$64.61 per barrel, down around 0.43% from the previous day.
This decline was driven by rising oil and refined product inventory data in the United States, reinforcing signals that global supply is beginning to outpace demand.
Meanwhile, a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed that global oil supply in 2025 has grown by around 3.1 million barrels per day and will continue to grow to 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026.
This creates a market scenario with significant oversupply, which is a major pressure on prices.
On the other hand, oil demand has recorded relatively slight growth. The IEA report notes that global demand growth for the third quarter of 2025 is only around 920,000 barrels per day—although improving compared to the previous quarter, it remains much more moderate than normal.
On the other hand, global oil supply continues to increase aggressively. Both non-OPEC producers and OPEC+ members have eased their production cuts, and major projects delayed by the pandemic are now coming back into production. For example, analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate Brent prices will average just US$56 per barrel in 2026 due to the surge in supply.
Geopolitical factors—such as attacks on Russian export facilities or potential sanctions—have proven to have only a short-term effect, insufficient to offset the surge in inventories and supply growth.
Against this backdrop, the market faces a two-sided coin:
The risk of a price decline becomes real if inventory data continues to rise or demand growth fails to improve.
However, the potential for a sudden price spike remains—especially if there is a major supply disruption, for example from Russia or the Middle East.
Technical analysis indicates that prices are currently consolidating. If prices fail to break through the upper levels and inventory data continues to show increases, further declines are likely. Conversely, if there are strong external triggers (production disruptions, new sanctions), a rebound could occur.
In short, the oil market is currently in a somewhat cautious state:
Dominated by both increasing supply pressures and weak demand growth.
Brent prices still have room to decline further if current conditions persist.
However, volatility remains high—market participants should be prepared for a “bounce up” scenario if a surprise occurs.
For investors and commodity market participants, it is important to maintain flexibility and closely monitor inventory data, OPEC+ production policies, and potential geopolitical disruptions.
Source: Newsmaker.id
